.
LONDON, England /
New Scientist / In-Depth Articles / September 23, 2009
By Reiner Klingholz
EUROPE, where the so-called population explosion got under way in the 18th century, is once again playing a pioneering role in demographic development.
The continent has the lowest fertility rate and the most elderly population in the world, and this population will soon start to shrink. All this makes it a front runner in a demographic trend that sooner or later will reach most of the world.
Pioneers have to advance through difficult terrain. Economists are already fretting over the problem of how social security systems will cope when the post-war baby boomers start collecting their pensions in 2015.
In hyper-ageing countries like Italy and Germany, where 1 in 7 people will be over 80 in 2050, it is unclear how a shrinking group of young people can generate the wealth needed to support the growing cohort of elderly citizens. Europe's competitiveness could fall behind younger and growing populations in other world regions.
Birth policies and family attitudes are having an effect upon population demographics, leading to an aging population in certain regions
Image: Tim Graham/Getty
On the face of it, fewer people seems like good news for the environment. The population of Germany, Europe's most populous country, will shrink by at least 8 million by 2050 and this trend is set to be replicated in many of its neighbours. Remote rural areas, mainly in central and eastern Europe, might become depopulated over time. This should benefit biodiversity as displaced plant and animal species recolonise their old terrain. Given that the world population is still growing by about 200,000 people a day, and the ecological footprint of the human race already lies beyond the limits of sustainability, fewer European mega-consumers will be a blessing for the health of the planet - and fewer North Americans would be even better.
But look a little deeper, and the picture becomes more complicated. Decreasing population does not necessarily promise environmental benefits. The cost per head of population for infrastructure such as sewage systems or electricity supply increases when population numbers go down, making clean water and non-polluting energy even more expensive than they are today.
So can Europe overcome its demographic and ecological challenges at the same time? The solution might be found in a rarely discussed concept: demographic sustainability.
High population growth, such as that now taking place in many African countries, is not sustainable. But very low fertility rates are unsustainable too. It will be hard for countries with persistently low fertility to remain competitive, creative and wealthy enough to keep ahead of their country's environmental challenges. What is needed is a middle ground.
A demographically sustainable Europe needs to have a stable or slowly shrinking population as the existing infrastructure operates most efficiently when the number of inhabitants remains fairly constant. What would it take to achieve this? At present, the average fertility rate in Europe is 1.5 children per woman, and in countries below this line there is an urgent need for family policies to encourage women to have more children. Countries with fertility rates above 1.8, including France, the UK and Sweden, do not need further pro-birth policies as immigration will fill the demographic gap.
Europe's biggest challenge is to survive the peak of ageing, which will come around 2045. After that the baby-boom generation will leave the population pyramid, and Europe will enter a new phase of its demographic journey.
Until then, it is important to focus less on human quantity and more on human capacity; not on how many people there are, but on how productively they live their lives. Working life must be extended and Europe must invest heavily in education, as fewer young brains will have to deliver increased creativity and productivity. Every member of society will be needed, so Europe cannot afford to allow marginalised, socially underprivileged groups to languish.
Countries that learn to live in prosperity with an ageing, stagnant population, or even one that is shrinking, will be the trendsetters for a sustainable future. Europe has the chance to develop a blueprint for these modern societies -
for economies that found their wealth and well-being not on growth but on stability. [
rc]
Read more:
The population delusion
Reiner Klingholz is director of the Berlin Institute for Population and Development in Germany. He is co-author of Europe's Demographic Future - Growing regional imbalances, published by the institute
© Copyright Reed Business Information Ltd.
EUROPE, where the so-called population explosion got under way in the 18th century, is once again playing a pioneering role in demographic development. The continent has the lowest fertility rate and the most elderly population in the world, and this population will soon start to shrink. All this makes it a front runner in a demographic trend that sooner or later will reach most of the world.
Pioneers have to advance through difficult terrain. Economists are already fretting over the problem of how social security systems will cope when the post-war baby boomers start collecting their pensions in 2015. In hyper-ageing countries like Italy and Germany, where 1 in 7 people will be over 80 in 2050, it is unclear how a shrinking group of young people can generate the wealth needed to support the growing cohort of elderly citizens. Europe's competitiveness could fall behind younger and growing populations in other world regions.
Birth policies and family attitudes are having an effect upon population demographics, leading to an aging population in certain regions
Image: Tim Graham/Getty
On the face of it, fewer people seems like good news for the environment. The population of Germany, Europe's most populous country, will shrink by at least 8 million by 2050 and this trend is set to be replicated in many of its neighbours. Remote rural areas, mainly in central and eastern Europe, might become depopulated over time. This should benefit biodiversity as displaced plant and animal species recolonise their old terrain. Given that the world population is still growing by about 200,000 people a day, and the ecological footprint of the human race already lies beyond the limits of sustainability, fewer European mega-consumers will be a blessing for the health of the planet - and fewer North Americans would be even better.
But look a little deeper, and the picture becomes more complicated. Decreasing population does not necessarily promise environmental benefits. The cost per head of population for infrastructure such as sewage systems or electricity supply increases when population numbers go down, making clean water and non-polluting energy even more expensive than they are today.
So can Europe overcome its demographic and ecological challenges at the same time? The solution might be found in a rarely discussed concept: demographic sustainability.
High population growth, such as that now taking place in many African countries, is not sustainable. But very low fertility rates are unsustainable too. It will be hard for countries with persistently low fertility to remain competitive, creative and wealthy enough to keep ahead of their country's environmental challenges. What is needed is a middle ground.
A demographically sustainable Europe needs to have a stable or slowly shrinking population as the existing infrastructure operates most efficiently when the number of inhabitants remains fairly constant. What would it take to achieve this? At present, the average fertility rate in Europe is 1.5 children per woman, and in countries below this line there is an urgent need for family policies to encourage women to have more children. Countries with fertility rates above 1.8, including France, the UK and Sweden, do not need further pro-birth policies as immigration will fill the demographic gap.
Europe's biggest challenge is to survive the peak of ageing, which will come around 2045. After that the baby-boom generation will leave the population pyramid, and Europe will enter a new phase of its demographic journey.
Until then, it is important to focus less on human quantity and more on human capacity; not on how many people there are, but on how productively they live their lives. Working life must be extended and Europe must invest heavily in education, as fewer young brains will have to deliver increased creativity and productivity. Every member of society will be needed, so Europe cannot afford to allow marginalised, socially underprivileged groups to languish.
Countries that learn to live in prosperity with an ageing, stagnant population, or even one that is shrinking, will be the trendsetters for a sustainable future. Europe has the chance to develop a blueprint for these modern societies - for economies that found their wealth and well-being not on growth but on stability. [rc]
Read more: The population delusion
Reiner Klingholz is director of the Berlin Institute for Population and Development in Germany. He is co-author of Europe's Demographic Future - Growing regional imbalances, published by the institute
© Copyright Reed Business Information Ltd.
