By 2050, a quarter of China's population, or about 320 million people, will be over 65 Photo: Greg Baker/AP
By Jane Macartney in Beijing
China’s economic miracle of the last decade has amazed the world. Now many wonder whether the Chinese can help to lead the world out of recession. But China has a huge looming problem of its own: it will be the first country to grow old before it grows rich.
Its enormous population is ageing rapidly. By 2050 about one quarter of all Chinese will be aged over 65. This is one of the consequences of the country’s three-decade-old “one couple, one child” family planning policy.
This puts China in a bind. With a population of 1.3 billion — the world’s largest — and one that is set to peak at 1.46 billion in 2026, the authorities cannot afford to relax their tough birth control policies. But without more younger people who is going to support the hundreds of millions of elderly? The percentage of elderly is projected to triple from 8 per cent to 24 per cent between 2006 and 2050. That means about 320 million old people.
Officials are already talking anxiously about the 4-2-1 phenomenon. It is almost certain now that China’s generation of only children will find themselves as adults trying to support two retired parents and four ageing, and possibly ailing, grandparents. How are those costs to be borne?
More births would certainly be one way to reduce the burden. But the possibility that the Communist Party will back away from its “one child” system is virtually negligible. The authorities take considerable pride in a policy that they say has prevented at least 400 million births. But they are also well aware of some of the unanticipated shortcomings of regulations aimed at reversing the population explosion nurtured by the Chairman Mao in the 1960s in his enthusiasm to defeat potential invaders with human wave warfare.
After all, the greying of the population has been accompanied by a more masculine population. A serious gender imbalance has emerged in a society where sons — alone able to carry on the family line in a country where ancestry is treasured — now outnumber daughters by a ratio of 120 to 100. The normal ratio would be about 106 male births for every 100 female.
Such factors are putting pressure on the authorities to make exceptions and introduce relaxations. They long gave up the unequal battle to limit farmers — reliant on a son’s labour — to one child, allowing them to have another if the first is a girl. Many ethnic minorities, such as Tibetans or Uighurs in the far West are allowed at least three and in practice officials just turn a blind eye to far larger families.
The booming financial metropolis of Shanghai stunned the public last month when it announced that it was encouraging couples eligible to have a second child to do just that. It has been several years since China gradually introduced a special dispensation whereby it allowed couples who are both only children to have two babies. The aim was to lift fertility rates from a disturbing low of 1.7 to 1.8 by 2010. A rate of 2.1 is necessary for population maintenance.
Officials have reason to wonder whether reminding couples they are allowed a second child will have any impact. A Shanghai survey from among those eligible found only 18.5 per cent would want a second baby while 59.5 per cent would pass up the opportunity and 22 per cent were not sure.
Beijing and the southern city of Guangzhou began encouraging eligible couples to have a second child in 2006. The only province where the practice remains banned is central Henan, the most populous with more than 99 million people. It is especially necessary in cities such as Shanghai where the number of over-60s already exceeds three million, or 21.6 per cent of the population — already far above the national average.
Put off by the cost of a second child — not to mention the inroads into their leisure time — many younger couples are choosing to have only one child and the trend is particularly evident in cities where the cost of living is higher and residents enjoy a lifestyle unimaginable among their parents’ generation.
The furore that accompanied the announcement has sent Shanghai officials running scared. They are anxious that their encouragement not be seen as a policy change and have removed the report from government web sites. But they still say that couples will be encouraged because the generation of only children is reaching child-bearing age.
Just this week the government introduced a pilot pension scheme for its 900 million farmers — a move that could ease the financial burden on their children and also discourage larger families. Currently there is no welfare in place for elderly farmers, unlike urban residents whose jobs generally make them eligible for at least some small pension.
Pressure on the “one-child” policy will remain relentless — from farmers eager for more offspring to work their fields and from the elderly who fear there will be no one to care for them in old age. As Toshiko Kaneda, a Japanese analyst, wrote: “Unlike developed countries where economic development preceded population ageing, China faces the massive demands of population ageing at one of the fastest rates ever and while its economy is still not fully developed — hence without the funds necessary to address the demands.” [rc]
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
August 7, 2009
CHINA: How to look after China's millions of old people
.
LONDON, England / The Times / World Agenda / August 7, 2009
By 2050, a quarter of China's population, or about 320 million people, will be over 65 Photo: Greg Baker/AP
By Jane Macartney in Beijing
China’s economic miracle of the last decade has amazed the world. Now many wonder whether the Chinese can help to lead the world out of recession. But China has a huge looming problem of its own: it will be the first country to grow old before it grows rich.
Its enormous population is ageing rapidly. By 2050 about one quarter of all Chinese will be aged over 65. This is one of the consequences of the country’s three-decade-old “one couple, one child” family planning policy.
This puts China in a bind. With a population of 1.3 billion — the world’s largest — and one that is set to peak at 1.46 billion in 2026, the authorities cannot afford to relax their tough birth control policies. But without more younger people who is going to support the hundreds of millions of elderly? The percentage of elderly is projected to triple from 8 per cent to 24 per cent between 2006 and 2050. That means about 320 million old people.
Officials are already talking anxiously about the 4-2-1 phenomenon. It is almost certain now that China’s generation of only children will find themselves as adults trying to support two retired parents and four ageing, and possibly ailing, grandparents. How are those costs to be borne?
More births would certainly be one way to reduce the burden. But the possibility that the Communist Party will back away from its “one child” system is virtually negligible. The authorities take considerable pride in a policy that they say has prevented at least 400 million births. But they are also well aware of some of the unanticipated shortcomings of regulations aimed at reversing the population explosion nurtured by the Chairman Mao in the 1960s in his enthusiasm to defeat potential invaders with human wave warfare.
After all, the greying of the population has been accompanied by a more masculine population. A serious gender imbalance has emerged in a society where sons — alone able to carry on the family line in a country where ancestry is treasured — now outnumber daughters by a ratio of 120 to 100. The normal ratio would be about 106 male births for every 100 female.
Such factors are putting pressure on the authorities to make exceptions and introduce relaxations. They long gave up the unequal battle to limit farmers — reliant on a son’s labour — to one child, allowing them to have another if the first is a girl. Many ethnic minorities, such as Tibetans or Uighurs in the far West are allowed at least three and in practice officials just turn a blind eye to far larger families.
The booming financial metropolis of Shanghai stunned the public last month when it announced that it was encouraging couples eligible to have a second child to do just that. It has been several years since China gradually introduced a special dispensation whereby it allowed couples who are both only children to have two babies. The aim was to lift fertility rates from a disturbing low of 1.7 to 1.8 by 2010. A rate of 2.1 is necessary for population maintenance.
Officials have reason to wonder whether reminding couples they are allowed a second child will have any impact. A Shanghai survey from among those eligible found only 18.5 per cent would want a second baby while 59.5 per cent would pass up the opportunity and 22 per cent were not sure.
Beijing and the southern city of Guangzhou began encouraging eligible couples to have a second child in 2006. The only province where the practice remains banned is central Henan, the most populous with more than 99 million people. It is especially necessary in cities such as Shanghai where the number of over-60s already exceeds three million, or 21.6 per cent of the population — already far above the national average.
Put off by the cost of a second child — not to mention the inroads into their leisure time — many younger couples are choosing to have only one child and the trend is particularly evident in cities where the cost of living is higher and residents enjoy a lifestyle unimaginable among their parents’ generation.
The furore that accompanied the announcement has sent Shanghai officials running scared. They are anxious that their encouragement not be seen as a policy change and have removed the report from government web sites. But they still say that couples will be encouraged because the generation of only children is reaching child-bearing age.
Just this week the government introduced a pilot pension scheme for its 900 million farmers — a move that could ease the financial burden on their children and also discourage larger families. Currently there is no welfare in place for elderly farmers, unlike urban residents whose jobs generally make them eligible for at least some small pension.
Pressure on the “one-child” policy will remain relentless — from farmers eager for more offspring to work their fields and from the elderly who fear there will be no one to care for them in old age. As Toshiko Kaneda, a Japanese analyst, wrote: “Unlike developed countries where economic development preceded population ageing, China faces the massive demands of population ageing at one of the fastest rates ever and while its economy is still not fully developed — hence without the funds necessary to address the demands.” [rc]
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
By 2050, a quarter of China's population, or about 320 million people, will be over 65 Photo: Greg Baker/AP
By Jane Macartney in Beijing
China’s economic miracle of the last decade has amazed the world. Now many wonder whether the Chinese can help to lead the world out of recession. But China has a huge looming problem of its own: it will be the first country to grow old before it grows rich.
Its enormous population is ageing rapidly. By 2050 about one quarter of all Chinese will be aged over 65. This is one of the consequences of the country’s three-decade-old “one couple, one child” family planning policy.
This puts China in a bind. With a population of 1.3 billion — the world’s largest — and one that is set to peak at 1.46 billion in 2026, the authorities cannot afford to relax their tough birth control policies. But without more younger people who is going to support the hundreds of millions of elderly? The percentage of elderly is projected to triple from 8 per cent to 24 per cent between 2006 and 2050. That means about 320 million old people.
Officials are already talking anxiously about the 4-2-1 phenomenon. It is almost certain now that China’s generation of only children will find themselves as adults trying to support two retired parents and four ageing, and possibly ailing, grandparents. How are those costs to be borne?
More births would certainly be one way to reduce the burden. But the possibility that the Communist Party will back away from its “one child” system is virtually negligible. The authorities take considerable pride in a policy that they say has prevented at least 400 million births. But they are also well aware of some of the unanticipated shortcomings of regulations aimed at reversing the population explosion nurtured by the Chairman Mao in the 1960s in his enthusiasm to defeat potential invaders with human wave warfare.
After all, the greying of the population has been accompanied by a more masculine population. A serious gender imbalance has emerged in a society where sons — alone able to carry on the family line in a country where ancestry is treasured — now outnumber daughters by a ratio of 120 to 100. The normal ratio would be about 106 male births for every 100 female.
Such factors are putting pressure on the authorities to make exceptions and introduce relaxations. They long gave up the unequal battle to limit farmers — reliant on a son’s labour — to one child, allowing them to have another if the first is a girl. Many ethnic minorities, such as Tibetans or Uighurs in the far West are allowed at least three and in practice officials just turn a blind eye to far larger families.
The booming financial metropolis of Shanghai stunned the public last month when it announced that it was encouraging couples eligible to have a second child to do just that. It has been several years since China gradually introduced a special dispensation whereby it allowed couples who are both only children to have two babies. The aim was to lift fertility rates from a disturbing low of 1.7 to 1.8 by 2010. A rate of 2.1 is necessary for population maintenance.
Officials have reason to wonder whether reminding couples they are allowed a second child will have any impact. A Shanghai survey from among those eligible found only 18.5 per cent would want a second baby while 59.5 per cent would pass up the opportunity and 22 per cent were not sure.
Beijing and the southern city of Guangzhou began encouraging eligible couples to have a second child in 2006. The only province where the practice remains banned is central Henan, the most populous with more than 99 million people. It is especially necessary in cities such as Shanghai where the number of over-60s already exceeds three million, or 21.6 per cent of the population — already far above the national average.
Put off by the cost of a second child — not to mention the inroads into their leisure time — many younger couples are choosing to have only one child and the trend is particularly evident in cities where the cost of living is higher and residents enjoy a lifestyle unimaginable among their parents’ generation.
The furore that accompanied the announcement has sent Shanghai officials running scared. They are anxious that their encouragement not be seen as a policy change and have removed the report from government web sites. But they still say that couples will be encouraged because the generation of only children is reaching child-bearing age.
Just this week the government introduced a pilot pension scheme for its 900 million farmers — a move that could ease the financial burden on their children and also discourage larger families. Currently there is no welfare in place for elderly farmers, unlike urban residents whose jobs generally make them eligible for at least some small pension.
Pressure on the “one-child” policy will remain relentless — from farmers eager for more offspring to work their fields and from the elderly who fear there will be no one to care for them in old age. As Toshiko Kaneda, a Japanese analyst, wrote: “Unlike developed countries where economic development preceded population ageing, China faces the massive demands of population ageing at one of the fastest rates ever and while its economy is still not fully developed — hence without the funds necessary to address the demands.” [rc]
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
