.
LONDON, England /
The First Post / Life / May 26, 2009
The media are as irresponsible in their use of skin cancer statistics
as people who don’t use sun lotion when they sunbathe
By John Ward
There are lies, damned lies and statistics, says an old cliché - although it isn't true. There are lies, damned lies and careless analysis of statistics, followed by misinterpretation of them by scaremongering media
It's been virtually impossible to open any newspaper or click onto a news website recently without reading headlines about the dangers of wanting a tan. 'Binge tanning responsible for surge in skin cancer,' suggested
The Times online yesterday.
To confuse the issue further, a YouGov poll of 4,485 people conducted in late April showed that this year fewer people are going abroad for a tan, and that 18 per cent of sunbed fans 'thus' plan to use them more often. As a result, Scotland's The Herald went with 'Recession linked to skin cancer'.
On closer examination, however, the level of danger is more imagined than real.
There is little or no danger of developing melanoma from getting a natural tan
One starting point is to ask 'Is this important?' It may seem a heartless question, but I should point out that there is a slightly less than evens chance that not a single one of the 4,485 interviewed by YouGov will die of melanoma. This is because it kills 1 person in 7,000 in the UK.
The second question is equally simple: is there a link between sunbathing and the growth in UK skin melanoma rates? Health News notes, "In the last 30 years, rates of the cancer have more than quadrupled, from 3.4 cases per 100,000 people in 1977 to 14.7 per 100,000 in 2006".
But among those under 40, the rate is seven per 100,000 - or roughly one in 14,000. Fully 50 per cent of all UK melanoma deaths occur in people aged over 70. The highest rate by far - 23 per 100,000 - is among women aged over 85. The most obvious (and almost certainly correct) conclusion from this is that rates of melanoma are growing because we're all living longer. As the Cancer Research UK website records:
"At younger ages, there is some indication that female (skin-cancer death) rates are levelling off."
The NHS says most skin melanoma (pictured right) cases could be prevented if people took care not to redden or burn.
Or put another way: if you go out in the sunlight fairly regularly with a reasonable degree of protection, you have a 1 in 4,000 chance of dying from melanoma by the age of 85. Given the benefits most people feel from a tan, I'd imagine 99 per cent would say it was a risk worth taking.
That may sound irresponsible, but it's not nearly as irresponsible as releasing a whole swathe of figures to the media who then make hay while the sun shines. For example, sunbed users are - according to the BMJ - 13 per cent of all UK citizens. The majority use them irregularly, and only 18 per cent of these expressed a desire to increase usage in the YouGov study.
When it comes to normal holiday tanning, the NHS advises: "most (skin melanoma) cases could be prevented if people took care not to redden or burn".
Not just deaths mark you - cases. In 2009, only idiots walk around in Mediterranean sun all day with no protective cream. For the rest of us, there is little or no danger of developing melanoma from getting a natural tan. And there are clearly health benefits from so doing: if 46 per cent feel healthier, and a fifth say they feel more attractive when tanned (YouGov again) then self-esteem rises, and thus antidepressant prescriptions fall.
Superficially examined research produces shibboleths, while these in turn cause needless anxieties and yet more over-protective attitudes. Medical authorities and charities would do better to warn about skin-type risk - the biggest link to melanoma - and spend less time briefing a voracious media with dodgy analysis.
Copyright: First Post Newsgroup IPR Limited
.
LONDON, England / The First Post / Life / May 26, 2009
The media are as irresponsible in their use of skin cancer statistics
as people who don’t use sun lotion when they sunbathe
By John Ward
There are lies, damned lies and statistics, says an old cliché - although it isn't true. There are lies, damned lies and careless analysis of statistics, followed by misinterpretation of them by scaremongering media
It's been virtually impossible to open any newspaper or click onto a news website recently without reading headlines about the dangers of wanting a tan. 'Binge tanning responsible for surge in skin cancer,' suggested The Times online yesterday.
To confuse the issue further, a YouGov poll of 4,485 people conducted in late April showed that this year fewer people are going abroad for a tan, and that 18 per cent of sunbed fans 'thus' plan to use them more often. As a result, Scotland's The Herald went with 'Recession linked to skin cancer'.
On closer examination, however, the level of danger is more imagined than real.
The NHS says most skin melanoma (pictured right) cases could be prevented if people took care not to redden or burn.
Or put another way: if you go out in the sunlight fairly regularly with a reasonable degree of protection, you have a 1 in 4,000 chance of dying from melanoma by the age of 85. Given the benefits most people feel from a tan, I'd imagine 99 per cent would say it was a risk worth taking.
That may sound irresponsible, but it's not nearly as irresponsible as releasing a whole swathe of figures to the media who then make hay while the sun shines. For example, sunbed users are - according to the BMJ - 13 per cent of all UK citizens. The majority use them irregularly, and only 18 per cent of these expressed a desire to increase usage in the YouGov study.
When it comes to normal holiday tanning, the NHS advises: "most (skin melanoma) cases could be prevented if people took care not to redden or burn".
Not just deaths mark you - cases. In 2009, only idiots walk around in Mediterranean sun all day with no protective cream. For the rest of us, there is little or no danger of developing melanoma from getting a natural tan. And there are clearly health benefits from so doing: if 46 per cent feel healthier, and a fifth say they feel more attractive when tanned (YouGov again) then self-esteem rises, and thus antidepressant prescriptions fall.
Superficially examined research produces shibboleths, while these in turn cause needless anxieties and yet more over-protective attitudes. Medical authorities and charities would do better to warn about skin-type risk - the biggest link to melanoma - and spend less time briefing a voracious media with dodgy analysis.
Copyright: First Post Newsgroup IPR Limited
