AUSTRALIA: Ageing Population Begins To Bite

MELBOURNE (Herald Sun - AAP), February 7, 2008: Old people will outnumber children within a decade as low fertility and increased life expectancy changes Australia's demographic profile. The full extent of the ageing population, a major challenge for policymakers, is contained in the 2008 Year Book published today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). It details the likely demographic make-up of Australia in the coming decades based on current trends and reveals the country will really start to notice the ageing effect in just three years. "The number of people aged 65 years and over is projected to outnumber children aged 0-14 years in 2018,'' it says. "By 2050, 26 per cent of the population is projected to be aged 65 years and over, in comparison to 15 per cent of the population being aged 0-14 years.'' The median age of Australia is tipped to increase from 38.2 in 2010 to 45.2 by 2050, the Year Book says. At the same time, the proportion of the population of working age will drop as young people leaving school and entering the workforce won't be enough to replace the numbers of baby boomers retiring. The effect will be particularly noticeable after 2011, when the first of the baby boomers reaches the retirement age of 65. "The decrease in the relative size of the working age group is expected to have significant implications for Australia, especially in terms of labour force participation, a shrinking tax base and demand for skilled labour,'' the Year Book said. "Skilled migrants from overseas will also be in short supply since the decrease in the working age population is occurring internationally.'' Despite the apparent gloom, the ABS Year Book notes fertility rates increased from 1.73 births per woman in 2001 to 1.81 in 2005 - although still well below the rate of 2.1 required to replace the population. The ABS notes that areas of highest socio-economic advantage have the lowest fertility rates, while families with lower incomes tend to have more children. "Areas with higher proportions of people with high incomes or skilled occupations tend to have lower TFRs (total fertility rates),'' it said. © Herald and Weekly Times.