Yemeni citizens line up to vote in the presidential and local elections in Sanaa in September 2006.Photo by Ammar Abd Rabbo/
ABACAPRESS.COM, via Newscom
By MARK N. KATZ
SANAA, Yemen (Middle East Times), December 26, 2007:
Earlier this year, the Washington-based Population Reference Bureau (PRB) projected that Yemen's population will grow from 22.4 million in 2007 to 58.0 million in 2050. This means that Yemen will have a significantly larger population than Saudi Arabia, which PRB projects will grow from 27.6 million in 2007 to 49.7 million in 2050. Yemen will then be the most populous country on the Arabian Peninsula.
Some Yemenis insist that their country actually achieved this status long ago. They believe that the Saudi government has exaggerated its population figures, and that many of those living in the Kingdom -- perhaps a quarter -- are actually foreigners (including Yemenis). Yemen's population, by contrast, is almost entirely Yemeni.
Whatever the past and present balance between Saudi Arabia and Yemen, as well as between Saudis and Yemenis, the future trend is clear: Yemen is going to have a larger population than Saudi Arabia by the mid-twenty-first century. But does this mean that Yemen will displace Saudi Arabia as the most influential country on the Arabian Peninsula?
Population size alone, of course, does not determine whether one country is more powerful or influential than another. Its possession of a quarter of the world's known oil reserves makes Saudi Arabia rich, important, and likely to remain so long into the future. Yemen, by contrast, is a poor country that is little known or understood not just by Westerners, but also by other Arabs -- including (indeed, especially) their Saudi neighbors.
Street scene in Sanaa. "Yemen Is A Powerful Country", says photographer Keelaaa. Courtesy: Keblog.
However, the projected increase in Yemen's population -- both on an absolute basis and in comparison to Saudi Arabia's -- suggests that Saudi Arabia and others are going to have to become concerned about Yemen no matter what happens there.
While Yemen's population will grow dramatically, whether its economy will finally develop is an open question. Yemen does not have the massive petroleum endowment that has helped boost living standards in Saudi Arabia and the other oil rich Gulf emirates. On the other hand, there have been many examples in Asia and elsewhere of rapid economic development in countries with little or no petroleum reserves.
Will Yemen follow the path of other non-oil states that have achieved rapid economic development? Like other countries, Yemen clearly has the potential to do so. But will it achieve that potential? It could, but the fact that it has not yet done so raises doubts about whether it will.
I remember thinking when I began studying the country and visiting it for the first time a quarter of a century ago that if Yemen could develop, it would become a regional powerhouse. I remember also thinking that while Saudi Arabia had already achieved much of its potential and probably could not develop much further, Yemen had not really even begun this process.
Looking back from today's perspective, I believe I underestimated Saudi Arabia's capacity for increased development. For the kingdom has developed more, although it still faces the odd problem of being heavily reliant on foreign workers while at the same time unable to create sufficient employment for its own citizens.
On the other hand, I overestimated Yemen's prospects for development. Its living standards have improved in the past quarter century, but are still remarkably low. Unlike other petroleum poor countries that have achieved rapid economic development, Yemen has not created the welcoming climate needed to attract and retain large-scale foreign investment.
Like some people, some countries have great potential but never seem to achieve it. I sincerely hope that Yemen is not such a country. Most unfortunately, however, it hasn't given much reason to believe otherwise.
There are those, of course, who prefer that Yemen remain poor and weak since its being rich and strong could make it an uncomfortable neighbor for Saudi Arabia, and thus of concern to all those dependent on the kingdom. But however much of a problem a rich and powerful Yemen might be, a poor but populous one will prove to be an even greater one.
Copyright © 2007 News World Communications Inc.
