JAPAN: Workforce May Shrink By Millions By 2030, Study Estimates

TOKYO (The Japan Times - Kyodo News), November 29, 2007: Japan's potential workforce could decline by some 10.7 million between 2006 and 2030 unless more women, young and senior citizens are encouraged to take up and keep jobs, according to a government panel's estimate released Wednesday. The panel at the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry aims to draw up policy recommendations in December to stem the anticipated decrease in the workforce, a trend that could seriously hurt the nation's economic growth, ministry officials said. The population of those aged 15 and older who are working or willing to work will slide from 66.57 million in 2006 to 62.17 million in 2017 before falling to 55.84 million in 2030, according to the estimate. The number of workers aged between 15 and 29 is estimated to drop by 4.01 million between 2006 and 2030 due to the falling birthrate. Provided that effective employment measures are taken, the anticipated decrease in the overall workforce between the same period should be curbed to about 4.80 million, less than half the 10.7 million fall projected under a scenario that foresees little progress despite such measures, according to the panel. The panel calls for more efforts to help women find re-employment after leaving work due to childbearing and rearing, as well as more measures to employ senior citizens. The panel believes that Japan's real economic growth will likely slow down to 0.7 percent per year between 2017 and 2030 in the absence of effective employment efforts. But if adequate measures are taken, the growth rate should rise to 1.9 percent. (C) The Japan Times