CANADA: How Long Will You Live? Here's A Way To Guesstimate

VANCOUVER, British Columbia (Times Colonist), October 27, 2007: If you could find out exactly when you were going to die, would you want to? It might seem like a silly question, but an increasing number of online "life expectancy calculators" claim to offer you just that chance. Of course, there's no crystal ball that can predict whether you'll get hit by a bus on your way to work tomorrow, or luck out and live into your 90s. But longevity experts say we now know enough about what makes people healthy or ill that we can make some pretty good guesses about how long someone will live. One of the most popular of those online calculators is at the website: livingto100.com. More than a million people worldwide have answered the site's roughly 50 questions, in return for a prediction of their life expectancy. The site was designed by Dr. Thomas Perls, a Boston longevity expert who heads the New England Centenarian Study, the world's largest study of those over the age of 100. "It's very much an evidence-based [tool]," says Perls. "I think it's a pretty good gauge, based on the available literature." Perls said the site's main purpose is to get people thinking about the steps they can take to lead a longer, healthier life. Perls's calculator recognizes that genes play a major role in life expectancy. And so there are questions about how long your parents lived, and whether any of your relatives had cancer. "It's hard to get to 107 without longevity running in your family," he says. But Perls estimates that while about 30 per cent of our health is influenced by genes, about 70 per cent is within our control. "And that's very good news," he says. "I would caution anyone against thinking their script is written." Our genes may give us a kind of life expectancy ceiling that we can reach if we lead the healthiest lives possible. But even bad genes aren't the end of the story, says Perls. If you know certain diseases, such as colon cancer, run in your family, you can get regular checkups to spot problems early. You can also make lifestyle changes to improve your odds. WHAT CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE Here is a rough estimate of the impact, in years, that various behaviours have on longevity. -20: Engaging in risky sexual behaviour or injection drug use that could expose you to HIV or other infections -8: Smoking* -8: Eating fast food all the time -6: Being obese* -2: Working seven days a week instead of five -2: Having a very stressful life -1: Getting fewer than six hours of sleep a night -1: Eating red meat every day -1: Having too much iron in your diet -0.5: Drinking more than three cups of coffee a day -0.5: Living in an area with poor air quality +3: Having a life partner or being married (for men only) +2: Taking 81 milligrams of aspirin every day, if approved by your physician, to help prevent heart attacks and strokes +1: Wearing sunscreen when outside or minimizing your exposure to the sun +1: Flossing daily to prevent gum inflammation that can contribute to heart disease +0.75: Wearing your seatbelt +0.5: Living near caring family +0.5: Having a bowel movement at least once every two days Source: The Livingto100.com website; Items marked with an asterisk are from other studies. By Chad Skelton © Times Colonist (Victoria) 2007