TORONTO (Globe and Mail), July 17, 2007: OTTAWA, TORONTO, CALGARY — Canada had better hope age becomes it. The Canadian work force is aging so quickly that there are barely enough young people to replace those about to retire, Statistics Canada reports today in the release of the age and sex portion of the 2006 census.In 10 years, not only will retirees outnumber newcomers to the work force, they're likely to outnumber children too, Statscan has warned.
“We do see a trend where children are on the decline and seniors are on the increase, and these two lines are going to cross in about 10 years,” said Rosemary Bender, director general of social and demographic statistics for Statistics Canada.
At the moment, the number of young people entering the work force is hovering just above the replacement rate of people retiring, she said. By comparison, the 1960s had two new workers for every retiree. As the baby boomers near the age of retirement, Ms. Bender says this new-worker ratio will inevitably drop below replacement levels.
Employers need to figure out ways to keep baby-boomers in the work force, and will increasingly have to focus on keeping older workers' skills up to date, explained lead analyst Laurent Martel. Employers will also need to figure out how to make sure the knowledge accumulated by older workers can be adequately transferred to the next generation, especially as baby boomers near retirement.
“If you talk about the general renewal of the work force, that's a challenge,” Mr. Martel said in an interview.
The number of people aged 55 to 64 totals 3.7 million, the highest level ever in Canada, and the fastest growing part of the population by far. The total population grew by 5.4 per cent over the past five years, while the 55-to-64 group bulked up by 25 per cent, Mr. Martel pointed out.
A low fertility rate and increased life expectancy are the main reasons behind the rapid aging. The fertility rate is about 1.5 children per woman, well below the replacement level of 2.1 that has not been seen since the early 1970s. Life expectancy is now 82.5 years for women and 77.7 years for men.
And immigration doesn't help much, Statscan added. While immigrants add to the size and diversity of the population, most of them arrive when they are 30 years old, and they age right along with the rest of us.
Canada is still one of the youngest countries in the Group of Eight, second only to the United States. Until now the population bulge created by the baby boom has actually kept the country statistically young.
But it is now the oldest nation in the Americas, Ms. Bender said, and the aging process is only going to speed up from here.
“Canada's aging has until now been delayed a little bit, because of the very large cohort of baby boomers still working,” Ms. Bender said.
By 2030, she said the nation will resemble today's Japan, with 20 per cent of the population expected to be over 65.
One in every seven Canadians is a senior citizen, according to the 2006 census – a record high 13.7 per cent of the total population, up from 13.0 per cent in 2001 when the last census was done.
At the other end of the spectrum, the number of children under 14 declined 2.5 per cent. Kids now account for just 17.7 per cent of the population, their lowest share ever, down from 19.1 per cent in 2001.
Seniors will likely outnumber children under 14 within the decade, especially since the number of seniors will accelerate starting in 2011, when the first baby-boomers turn 65.
Already more than one million people in Canada are over 80, up 25 per cent from 2001.
And the number of Canadians in the over-100 club has soared – although count men out. The census found 4,635 people aged 100 years or older, up 22 per cent from 2201 and up 50 per cent from 1996. But five of every six centenarians were women.
Every region in the country is aging, but the West is generally younger than the East, Statscan said, mainly because of the energy boom that has drawn workers from other parts of Canada. The province with the oldest population is Saskatchewan, while the youngest province is Alberta.
The Atlantic provinces' populations are much older than the national average, while Quebec is just slightly above the national average. Ontario, however, is one of the youngest provinces.
British Columbia is one of the oldest provinces, but that's because life expectancy there is longer.
The three territories form the youngest region in Canada, mainly because of higher fertility rates and lower life expectancy than the rest of the country.
If you're looking for a husband, Alberta is the place to go. It was the only province in Canada with more men than women. For every 100 women, there 100.2 men in Alberta, compared to 95.9 men for every 100 women at a national level.
At the city level, all cities are getting older, and the proportion of children in every city in Canada is dropping. Kelowna, B.C., is the oldest city because of a high seniors population. The youngest urban population in the country lives in Barrie, Ont.
But the story of the nation is far from the story of its parts. Communities like Kelowna specifically target retirees in their economic models, Ms. Bender said.
Other urban areas, particularly in Saskatchewan and the Atlantic provinces, are aging because young people are seeking opportunities elsewhere.
Alberta, however ranks at the extremes in just about every measure of the census.
According to Statistics Canada, it was the youngest province in 2006. It remained home to the country's youngest city – Calgary with a median age of 35.7 years – had a higher proportion of children than the national average and the lowest population by percentage of senior citizens.
Young people are flocking to boomtown Alberta for work, many in the oil and gas sectors, and not surprisingly many of those newcomers happen to be men.
Alberta was also only province that had more men than women in 2006. For every 100 women, there were 100.2 men, yet nationally, there were just 95.9 men for every 100 women.
Laurie Goldbach, 35, is originally from Ontario, but moved West in 2000 drawn to then entrepreneurial environment in Calgary, which she viewed as best place in the country for a young lawyer to be given greater responsibilities on files.
The corporate litigation lawyer was right. She made partner last year at Bennett Jones at the tender age of 33.
“Pretty young to be partner in a blue chip law firm,” Ms. Goldbach said.
Heather Scoffield and Tenille Bonoguore and Dawn Walton
© Copyright 2007 CTVglobemedia Publishing Inc
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